Huge Bet Pays Off

There’s a story making the rounds about a guy who won $375,000.00 on a World Series bet of $250. Apparently, he bet on the Cardinals to win it all back in September, when the Cards were 10 games out of placing. The odds given were 999 to 1 against that happening.

It’s tough when you are in sports arbitrage to read these things, even though you know that mathematically, the bet wasn’t justified. Imagine getting that much money in one huge chunk — fantastic. For the arb player though, that’s poison. We make our percentages at the single digit level and try to eliminate the risk. Slow and steady wins the day. But it’s still hard when you see something like that. The remedy is to remember that the casinos didn’t lose here. That big win was offset by many, many losses from other players.

What is just as interesting for me is a little snippet mentioned in the Yahoo News story. They mention that the odds were changed the day after the bet was made. They were changed by Mr. Jay Rood, an MGM vice president (the casino, not the movie company). And, more importantly, that he sets the odds for 12 Las Vegas sports books.

Why is that a big deal? Well, in sports arbitrage, I depend on different odds from different books to make a living. As more and more bookmakers simply use the same service (or person) to set odds, ti becomes impossible to find the differences that make sports arbitrage work.

From a bookmaker’s point of view, unless they want to attract more business by shading the odds one way or another, they can just sign up for a service that sets the odds for them. It’s as simple as having a subscription and the software does the rest. This whole deal is going to kill the sports arbitrage business in my opinion.

That’s primarily why arbitrage wouldn’t work with physical bets here in Las Vegas. You couldn’t find enough difference in the odds to overcome the fees you pay for making a bet in the first place.

On the other hand, I was talking to someone about a new type of arbitrage that might work here in Sparkle City. The idea is to pick an event that is a long way off and make smallish bets on the long-odds teams/players (much like the 999 to 1 on the Cardinals). Then, as the odds change for the worse (as some will do) you sell your bet slip for a profit.

So, for instance, you get the Eagles at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, early in the season. If they win a few games, the odds drop to 10 to 1 or so (just making up numbers). A new bettor would be better off buying your ticket (30 to 1) and pay you extra for the privilege — as long as they are still making a profit overall.

I’m not sure how this will work in practice, and I’m a bit suspicious right now, but it may have potential. The nice thing is that it doesn’t depend on whether a team wins or loses the final event. By that time, you are out of the game. What I don’t know yet is how odds might fall even further– in which case you would lose the opportunity to sell the bet. And I’m not sure how and who you would sell to in practice, although that would be internet based I suppose. Finally, I don’t know if it is legal.

West Nile Virus in Las Vegas

Earlier this week I had the flu and felt lousy. I didn’t go to the doctor’s at all and just suffered for a couple days. It wasn’t until I read an article from last month about West Nile virus here in Las Vegas that it occurred to me it may have been that bug. They say there were 8 cases reported.

In that piece they mention abandoned swimming pools as a reservoir for the mosquitoes that transmit the virus. This was confirmed when I learned a little more about West Nile. In this podcast (from 2008) they talk about Bakersfield California and how people left during a heatwave, and because of high electricity costs, shut off the filter equipment in their pools. In fact, they linked to a CDC (Centers for Disease Control) article with a satellite picture about it. You can see the green where the pools have become overgrown with algae and available to mosquitos.

The red arrows show abandoned (green) pools that harbor the mosquitoes.

Apparently, the brand of mosquito that transmits the virus can smell polluted or stagnant water and goes there to lay its eggs.

So what does this have to do with Vegas? Guess which city had the highest foreclosure rate last year? Us. And what happens when people abandon their houses or don’t have enough money to keep them up? You got it; they let the pool go to pot.

So, I did a little Google Earth to look for green pools in Vegas. Here’s an example:

Guess which one of the houses above is in foreclosure?

So did I get West Nile? I don’t really know and I don’t think anyone really knows how many cases there are around here. After all, I wasn’t sick enough to go in for treatment and there’s probably a lot of other people who haven’t either.

I did find out the mortality rate for this disease is about 4.5%, but only if you have a severe case — in fact, most cases are symptom free, 80% or so.

The mosquitoes don’t travel all that far from their pond (unless there’s a strong wind or something) so you might want to check Google Earth and see what your neighbors are up to, although that’s not the best, since the pictures may be dated. The best you can do is wear mosquito repellant for a few days after a rainstorm (rarer here in Las Vegas).

If I did have it, I’m now immune. So that’s an upside for me.

Hanging Around the Casino

Well, I had my questions answered. Women do not actually smell money. They may sense a certain confidence and high morale in a man who has money, and a man who consistently has money does have telltale signs (like nice clothes, good haircut, manicured nails, new shoes…), but that’s just somewhere to start.

How do I know? I asked Mattie about it and my run-in with her and Mai Lin. Turns out Mai Lin was more interested in me simply because Mattie had put the “safe” label out there. She’d already mentioned me to Mai Lin as being single and interesting. So that clears up the myster from my last post.

Now, I won’t say Mai Lin and I are a couple, but I’ve taken her out a few times and I’ve run into “the rules.” The rules have to do with what is and isn’t allowed when you date a dealer at a casino. The first and primary rule is that you can’t hang out at their table when they are working. Dealers are forbidden to interact with significant others (even as insignificant as me) while they are working. Plainly, there’s a worry about cheating — and one thing you don’t want to mess with is the paranoia of casino security. She could lose her job.

She did tell me some stories from the place that don’t reflect well on humans in general. For instance, when some people get fixated on a particular slot machine, they will guard it with their lives. That means no bathroom breaks… you guessed it. Some will pee right there on the stool in front of the machine rather than go to the restroom. Completely disgusting.

And then there’s the string of people hitting on her at work. She’s encouraged to be friendly, even flirtatious, with the players. But some of those players become stalkers, thinking the tip they gave her allows them to be jerks away from the gambling floor. Mai Lin has a few stories about girls that were followed or accosted while on break or when going to their cars after work. Sad, really.

It’s enough of a problem that you are encouraged to go with a coworker or ask for security when leaving the gaming floor after your shift.

Can Women Smell Money?

I only ask because of the following story…

First, you have to know I haven’t really been hitting it out of the park, dating-wise. I blame myself. It seems like such a chore to get “out there” or “mingle.” And I wouldn’t say I’m all that impressive when you meet me. But hey, I’m a nice guy, as far as guys go.

Dog Fun

One thing about Jack Russells — they have boundless energy and intensity. When you own one, you feel like the activities director for a classroom full of 5-year olds, always trying to come up with something new to burn off the dog’s energy.

So, I saw where agility trials were being held at the fairgrounds. And that got thinking about Little Henry and how much fun it would be.

The purpose of an agility trial seems to be to get your dog to run as fast as possible through a course of jumps, tunnels and platforms — at blazing speed, in a set order, and while the trainer/owner tries to keep up and pretend to be in control.

Poker Stars Conspiracy

Vegas loves gossip and rumors. What top start will be hired, which will be fired, what’s going on with casino X or Y… We love it.

When Poker Stars, the online gaming site (along with the partner site, Full Tilt Poker) got pulled earlier this year for violation of the online gaming rules, the rumors flew. The sites were seized by the US Justice Department because you can’t play with real money in the US on the Internet.

Little Henry Gets a Job

Las Vegas is one of those places where synchronicity and Karma seem to rule. Little Henry, my Jack Russell terrier was the beneficiary of the lasted example of this — and he got a job because of it.

Scary Private Detective

Got a phone call from a private dick who invited me out to dinner to “talk about my friend.”

My instinct was to say no, but he let slip he’d already read what I had to say about him on the blog and implied we could, “clear things up.” The not-so-hidden threat was to implicate me with the police.

So now I’m a Biker

Now that I’m officially in the motorcycle clique, I immediately noticed I’m suppose do have an opinion about helmet laws. It’s especially keen here in Nevada, where one State Senator has introduced legislation every session for the last 10 years about it. (Our State Legislature only meets every other year, so that’s not as many times as it seems.)

Motorcyle in Vegas

I’ve been thinking about getting a little moped since using one to get around in India on this last trip. They’re pretty cheap — you can get a nice scooter around here for $500 to $1,000 for used and up to a couple of grand for new. But then I had two thoughts…